I have watched and observed all Big Brothers since the first series. I have made a few interesting social theories on the nomination process decided by housemates which can be a big indicator of the most likely winner (see below). Tell me what you think?

Stage 1. Alpha males and females are removed from the house over a series of a couple of weeks. These alpha individuals show aggression, challenge other housemates over territory. Housemates that are alpha in the early stages show behaviour that can be best described as narcissist. That is, if the only conversation other housemates are chatting about in the house, are usually the housemates making all the dramas. These are the alphas. There's definitely a trend in Big Brother. The really nutso houseguests get voted off in the beginning.

Stage 2. Housemates lacking in household domestic skills are alienated and take the next journey out of the house. Why. Housemates are looking for team players, not housemates that need constant "mothering". At this stage, flaws in personalities are explored. Clearly, they are voting people off in order of obnoxiousness. Where the group finds these personalities as examples of non-acceptable behaviour, say goodbye.

Stage 3. The "quite" housemates lacking in social interaction and communication skills are abandoned from the house in favour of housemates who are warm, friendly and sincere. As the housemates are voted out of the house, the next layer of leadership is established. The rule here is where a housemate can’t communicate effectively with other members of the house, then again nomination occurs.

Stage 4. Housemates that have strategically moved themselves into position as winners are challenged. Previously, the pecking order had previously removed the alphas to allow the betas and gammas to make the move into the next ranks. They will now be questioned unconsciously by other housemates for their influence over the group, but housemates will find it even harder to find reasons for evictions during the voting stage because the grouped has "normalised". There is no resentment against each other so strategies come into play, as painful as it is to vote out someone that you have formed close friendships with.

Stage 5. In the final stage, the conflict of masculinity and femininity again come into play. The basic laws of attraction now move up a gear. What alpha qualities are needed by housemates to win? And there lies the crux of the question. Consider the winners of the previous BB seasons? The audience has a pre-conceived idea of the "physical image" of what the winner must be. See reasons below. The audience had already established this image from the early stages of the show.

Congratulations Ryan - you are the winner of BB4!!!

Why. His down to earth, a typical aussie person, a team player, shows empathy, has strong social skills, shows no anti social behaviour, physically attractive, highly adaptative to new environments, supportive and is seen as the macho coolie.

Housemates, the public and producers are the three that make up the model for nominations. That’s the problem. BB has become too predictable. The only solution for Channel 10 now is to scrap ALL the housemates now. Its only early weeks. Start with a new bunch of housemates. There's no conflict, there's nothing interesting, there's just nothing worth watching whatsoever. So do me a favour, wake me up when it’s all over.

Cheers Tony

Post ripped from here. Well written piece, worth the copy paste.